台风“暹芭”引发的黑山地区大暴雨过程分析与区域模式检验
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Cause analysis and regional patern test of heavy rainstorm caused by typhoon“Chaba”in Heishan
XU Bo1 JI Yuan1 LI Anfeng1 MA Ruoyu1CHANG Shuting² ZHANG Xinyuan³ （1Heishan County Meteorological Bureau， Heishan 1214O0， China;
²Jinzhou Meteorological Bureau， Jinzhou 1210o0， China;
3Xiuyan Manchu Autonomous County Meteorological Bureau， Xiuyan 1143oo， China）
AbstractFrom July6to7，2O22，aheavyrainstorm occurred intheHeishan area ofJinzhou，Liaoning Province. This precipitation event was primarilyinfluenced bytheextratropical cyclonetransformed from typhoon“Chaba”andan upper-level trough.Thecharacteristics of this regional heavyrainfallprocess were analyzed from theperspectives of circulationbackgroundand physical quantity.The forecastperformanceof diferent regional models（CMA-MESO， CMA-TYM，CMA-GFS，and CMA-SH9） in the study area was evaluated using TS and BIAS metrics.The results indicatedthattheextratropical cyclone，transformed from tropicalcyclone“Chaba”movednortheastward，guiding warm and moist air northward.Meanwhile，theupper-leveltroughcontinuouslymoved eastwardanddeepened，leading to the convergenceofcoldand warm airover Liaoning.The low-level jetaheadofthe low-pressurevortex intensified， transporting warmand moist air tothe studyareaand providing sustained moisture supplyfor the heavyrainstorm.The study area exhibited a high 0 °C layer height，unstable atmospheric stratification，significant vertical wind shear， high overallatmospheric humidity，and adeepsaturated moisture layer，indicating favorable moisture conditions.The lowlevel jet remained stable at around 15m/s ，which facilitated short-duration heavyrainfall.The performance of the regional models based on TS scores was ranked as follows： CMA-SH9>CMA-MESO>CMA-TYM>CMA-GFS， while the BIAS scores ranked as： CMA-MESO>CMA-SH9>CMA-TYM>CMA-GFS. The research findings can serve as areferenceforweatherforecasting inagricultural production. Keywordsheavy rainstorm; typhoon“Chaba"; regional model; TS verification; BIAS verification
暴雨是主要的农业气象灾害之一，具有突发性强的特点，短时强降水易导致农田积水，形成渍涝灾害，淹没作物根系，造成缺氧烂根，对农业生产造成不利影响；同时，易引发洪涝和地质灾害，严重威胁着地方经济发展[-2]。（剩余6369字）
