ARIMA模型在中国城镇人口预测中的研究

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中图分类号：0211.61 文献标识码：A文章编号：1009-3583（2025）-0075-04

Research on ARIMA Model in Urban population Forecast in China

SHEN Jin ， XU Ling （Anhui Sanlian University，Hefei 230601，China）

Abstract：AccordingtotheurbanpopulationdataofChinafrom197to2O23bytheNationalBureauofStatistics，atimeseriesmodel based n ARIMA algorithm was createdtopredict heurbanpopulationof China.According tothe modelorderand parameterstimation，the parameterangeisdeteried，andthepredictedesultsarecomparedwiththeactualvalues.ItisfoundtatAA（1，10） modelis themostefectieinpredictingCina’subanpoulatinFinallomparingte（1，1）odelwithteetial curveftigmodel，tisscoveredtateodelashgheraccacypopulatiopreictioeodelsowstattan population in China will proceed to grow in the short run， but the growth trend willgradually slow down.

Keywords： Urban population forecast; Time series analysis; ARIMA model; Curve fitting

城镇化是推动经济增长的重要动力，城镇化水平间接反映了国民经济发展水平。（剩余3802字）