1990一2030年中国基底细胞癌疾病负担分析及趋势预测

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DOI：10.16424/j.cnki.cn32-1807/r.2025.05.007

[中图分类号]R739.5 [文献标志码]A [文章编号] 1674-7887（2025）05-0439-05

Analysis and trend prediction of basal cell carcinoma burden in China from 199o to 2030* GONG Boyil*， CHEN Yongqi’， LIU Minhui'， WANG Ruihan1，SHEN Congcong2** （Medical CollegeofNantongUniversity， Jiangsu 226OO1; ²Department of Dermatology，Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University）

[Abstract]Objectie：Toanalyze thedisease burdenofbasalcellcarcinoma（BCC）in Chinafrom1990 to2019and topredict itstrendsfrom2O2Oto2030，providingascientificbasisfordiseasepreventionandcontrol.Methods：Usingdatafromthe Global BurdenofDiseaseStudy2019，theincidenceanddisability-adjustedlifeyear（DALY）wereselectedasstudymetrics.To analyzethecurent statusandtrentsof thediseaseburdenof BCC in China from1990 to2019.Temporaltrends were evaluatedusing theetimatedannual percentagechange（EAPC），anda Bayesian-age-period-cohortBAPC）model was established to projecttheage-standardized incidencerate（ASIR）of BCC in China from 2020to2030.Results：From1990 to2019，the ASIR of BCC in China showed a significant increasing trend，with an EAPC of 4.78%（95%CI： 3.98 % -5.58 % ）， while DALY also increased， with an EAPC of 4.32%（95% CI： 3.60%-5.04 % ）. The incidence of BCC peaked in the 65-<70 age group， while DALY peaked in the 75- <80age group respectively. In 2019，aged 20-55 years men and aged >95 years men exhibited lower disease burden metrics than womenof the same age groups.Projections basedon the BAPC model indicated that the ASIRofBCC in China willrisefrom13.2per100000in 2020to 30.6per100000in 2030—a1.3-fold increase. Conclusion：Thedisease burdenof BCCin Chinaremainssubstantial，particularlyamong middle-agedandelderlyindividuals. Projections show acontinuous risein ASIR from2O2O to 2O30，which indicates thatenhanced preventionand management strategiesareurgentlyneeded for these high-risk populations.

[Key words] basal cell carcinoma; incidence; China; disease burden; trend projection

基底细胞癌（basal cell carcinoma，BCC）是非黑色素瘤皮肤癌中发病率最高的皮肤恶性肿瘤，患者常有显著的日光照射损伤或较大程度的紫外线（ultra-violet，UV）暴露史]。（剩余9929字）