基于Joinpoint回归分析南通市2011—2023年结核病流行趋势

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DOI：10.16424/j.cnki.cn32-1807/r.2025.05.002

[中图分类号]R52 [文献标志码]A [文章编号] 1674-7887（2025）05-0415-07

Joinpoint regression based analysis of the epidemic trend of tuberculosis in Nantong City in 2011—2023*

MAJiahui*，HHuihui**，ZHUHuiming，HENJ²，，WANGShouwei，HONGMingyang，WUPeipei’，LIFeng，HUANG Yuyu4*** （Departmentof Laboratory，AfiliatedNantong Hospital，Shanghai University，the Sixth People'sHospitalof Nantong City，Jiangsu226O11;SlowTransmisionDepartmentof Nantong CenterforiseaseControlandPrevention;NantongQinzao HealthServiceCenter;Dean’sOficeofTongzhouDistrictTraditionalChineseMedicineHospital，NantongCity）

[Abstract]Objective：Toanalyzetheepidemic trendof tuberculosis inNantongCityfrom2O1lto2O23forprovidingabasis forthelocaltuberculosis preventionandcontrolwork.Methods：Through theChinaDiseasePreventionandControlInformationSystem，thdataoftbeculosisasesinantongCityfrom2l1to23erecollcted，Jnpoitegesionasdto analyzethetrendofincidene，andmulti-factorLogisticregresionwasusedtoanalyzetheinfluencingfactorsofptienttreatmentfailure.Results：From2O11to223，Nantong Cityreportedatotalof36878casesoftuberculosis，withanaverageanual reported incidence of 37.22/10o Ooo， showing an overall downward trend（A 4APC =- 7.46% ， P- <0.001）. Thepeak of the disease isfromMarch to Septembereveryyear.Thepopulationwiththehighestincidenceis intheage groupof 65andabove（68.36/ 100 000），follwedbytheagegroupof15-<65（35.84/ooO），mainlymidle-agedandelderlymenandlocalpatientsoffaers.TheareawiththehighestincidencerateisChongchuanDistrict（44.O/10oOO），andthelowestisRudongCounty（33.26/ 100 000）.Deladonsltatio，osieologicalrsultsreatmentdugsisanendotrctorsilladtcase inthefailurerateofpatients’treatment.Conclusion：Strengthentheactivescrenngofmiddle-agedandelderlymen，improve thetimelyconsultationrateofpatients，standardizethetreatmentmaagementofpatients，especiallydrug-resistanttuberculo sis patients，reduce the spread of drug-resistant tuberculosis，and improve the survival rate of patients.

[Key Words] tuberculosis; trend; report incidence;Nantong City

结核病是由结核分枝杆菌（Mycobacterium tuber-culosis，MTB）感染引起的慢性传染性疾病，是一项全世界面临的公共卫生挑战，尤其在发展中国家的发病率和死亡率很高[1-]。（剩余9842字）