基于演化博弈的“15分钟养老服务圈”参与主体行为策略及影响因素

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：C913.7 文献标志码：A

Behavioral Strategies and Influencing Factors of Participants in the “15-Minute Elderly Care Service Circle” Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

ZHU Wen-juan， LIU Zhen-jiang （School of Economics and Management，Hunan University of Technology，Zhuzhou 4l20oo，China）

Abstract ： A tripartite evolutionary game model was constructed to analyze the stable strategy evolution process and influencing factors among elderly care service providers，integrators，and the elderly under government intervention in the“15-minute elderly care service circle". By constructing the payoff matrix of the participates and the replicator dynamics equation，combined with the stability analysis of the Jacobian matrix，the system's equilibrium state was identified. Numerical simulation and parameter sensitivity tests were used to reveal the dominant role of the integrator's behavioral strategy on system stability. Results indicate that the cost-benefit ratio of the integrator is the core factor determining its willingness to cooperate. Government subsidies and penalties can significantly increase its probability of cooperation by adjusting the integrator's profit structure. Reducing the integrator's resource integration cost or expanding the scale of the elderly's demand can enhance the probability of cooperation among the three parties.

Keywords： 15-minute elderly care service circle；evolutionary game；participants； behav

ioral strategies;influence factors

近年中国人口老龄化进程加速，截至2023年末，60周岁及以上人口占比已达 21.1%[1] ，而传统的家庭养老模式日益弱化，社会化和社区化养老已成为必然趋势[2]，构建高效、普惠的养老服务体系成为社会发展的迫切需求。（剩余7272字）