基于随机森林的贵州省农业碳排放影响因素研究

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中图分类号：S181 文献标识码：A文章编号：1006-8228（2025）08-57-04

Abstract：Underthebackgroundof"doublecarbon”goals，reducingagriculturalcarbonemisionsinGuizhouProvinceisofgreat significanetopromotelow-carbontransformationBasedonthedataofagriculturalinputsandlivestockandpoultrybredingin Guizhoufrom20to2023，thispapermeasuredagriculturalcarbonemisionsthroughthe IPCCmethodanalyzeditschange trend，andusedtherandomforestmethodtoexploretheinfluencingfactorsandverifiedbytheLMDImodel.Theresultsshowed thattheagriculturalcarbonemissionsin Guizhoushowedaninverted"V"shapechange，andthecarbonemissonintensity decreasedsignificantlyRegionaleconomicdevelopment，regionalindustrallayoutandagriculturalproductionfiencyaethkey influencingfactors.Amongthemagriculturalproductionficiencyandregionalindustriallayoutcontributedsignificantlytothe reductionofcarbonemisions，andregionaleconomicdevelopmentwerethemainfactorfortheincreaseofcarbonemissions. FinallycombinedwiththecaractersticsofmoutainousagricultureinGuzouthelow-carbontransitiopathswereputforward. Keywords：Agricultural Carbon Emissions;Low-carbon Transformation；Random Forest;LMDI;Guizhou Province

0引言

全球气候变暖是当今社会面临的重大挑战之一，温室气体排放是其主要驱动因素。（剩余4354字）