维持性血液透析病人自体动静脉内瘘血管钙化风险预测模型的构建及验证

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Constructionand validation of risk prediction model for vascular calcification inautogenous arteriovenous fistulas among patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis WANG Chun，LI Kui， ZHAO Hong，SONG Yan，YANG Jing HefeiFirstPeople'sHospital，Anhui 230061 China Corresponding Author WANG Chun，E-mail：wcjhlgu @ 163.com

AbstractObjetieToaalytheifuengfactorsofvasularcalifationinautogenousarterioveosfstulasamogpatientsugig maintenance hemodialysis（MHD）andtoconstructdecisiontreemodel.Methods：Atotalof233patientsundergoingMHDtreated nour hospitalwereselectedasstudysubjectsfromJanuary22toSeptember2O23Andclinicaldatawerecolected.Thepatientsweredivided into modeling group（l63 patients） and validation group（7O patients） at 7：3 ratio.Logistic regression analysis was used to screen for influencing factorsofascularcalciatiinutogeousarterioveousfistulasaongpatitsudgoingedcisiotrodelastruted. Themodelwasvalidatedusigareaunderthecurve（AUC）ofreceiveroperatorcharacteristc.Results：Theincidenceofvascularcalcfction in autogenous arteriovenous fistulas among patients undergoing MHD in the modeling group was 39.88% .The result of Logistic regresionalysoedatealisatioospos，gsiiityctieproteinoblastgoth andboneopogeeticproei-2weeaifueningfactorsofaularcalcationiautogeousarterovenousfistulasamogpatits undergoing MHD .P<0.05） .Decision tree model showed that bone morphogenetic protein-2 in the first layer.The AUC of the model in the modelinggous5578），hileatinevalidatiogoupa568）Cocusis：Aelis durationriiicebsctgte associatedwitvasularcalcificationinutogousarteriovenousfisulasamngpatintsudergigMTeostructeddecisiontreemoel ofvascularcalcificationinautogenousarteriovenousfistulasamong patientsundergoingMHDhadbetterpredictiveperforance.

Keywordsmaitenancehemodialysis;togenosarteroveoufistula;vasularcalcificationinfluencingfactos;decisiotre;model validation

血液透析是终末期肾病病人延续生命的首选治疗方式[12]。（剩余8011字）