宫颈癌术后病人下肢淋巴水肿风险预测模型的构建

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Development of hazards prediction model for lower limb lymphedema in postoperative cervical cancer patients

LISen1²，LIU Gaoming²，ZHAO Guorui'，ZHOU Ying³

1.Xiangya School of Nursing，Central South University，Hunan 41oo13 China;2.Hunan Cancer Hospital; 3.School ofNursing，HunanUniversityofChineseMedicine

*Corresponding Author LIU Gaoming，E-mail： 354205223@qq.com

AbstractObjectiveToexploretheinfuencingfactorsoflowerlimblympedemainpostoperativecervicalcancerpatientsandtoostrcta CoxproportioalazardspredictionodelMethds：Atotalof3O3postopratieceicalcanerpatitsdmiedtoaanerospitalin HunanprovincewereselectedforstudysubjectsfromJuly22OtoJune2021.PredictorswerescreenedusingLASSOregresionandCox regressionanalysis.TheCoxproportional-hazardspredictionmodelwasconstructed.ThentheNomogramwasconstructed.Themodel's discriminativabilityandpredictieperformancewereevaluatedusingtheCindex，calibrationcurve，andareaunderthecueofreceier operatorcractestlts：sultofsiaissodatblseeaidelytesii concurrentcemordiotrapyrolongdstaticosturefterurgerystoprativecalabrtesityndetreselaly aftersurgery.Basedonliteraturereviewandexpertconsultation，2additionalvariables（numberofpelviclymphnodesremovedand postoperativedaidoe）reicoratedtostructeCxpportioalzadspredictodel.emgaaslsocted The C-index was 0.858（95%CI 0.784–0.932） in the test set.The area under the curve of receiver operator characteristic at 1 year and 2 yearstimepointswereO.92OandO.881，respectively.Andthecalibrationcurvedemonstratedgoodagreementbetweenpredictedand observedoutcoms.Conclusis：TeCoxproportionalazadspredictiomodelforlowerlimblymphedemainpostoperatiecevicalancer patientshadgoodpedictivepeformance.Itouldprovideefereceforearlyidentifaioofhgiskpatientsdpreventionadtreatet of lower limb lymphedema in postoperative cervical cancer patients.

Keywordscervical cancer;lower limb lymphedema;influencing factors; risk prediction;Nomogram

宫颈癌是全球女性第四大常见癌症，2022年，我国宫颈癌发病人数为15.07万例，死亡人数为5.57万例[1]。（剩余12560字）