基于关键路径法的导管架施工进度风险评估

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Abstract：Asacriticalengineringfacilityinofshoreoilgasfielddevelopment，jacketinvolesmulti-disiplinarycollbration， intensivecrosopationdolexprocestrol.Tergsisecttuliiesioalskctorsucht management，andtecologyoeettesysematicassessmentrequrementsforteissintheonsructioprogessoftejacketa dynamicquantitativeanalysisframeworkforriskswasconstructedbasedonthecriticalpathmethod（CPM）.Amultidimensionalrisk factorlistwasstablsdbyskidentificatio.Accodingtoenalyisoftotalfloatndduratiosenstivityteimpactofiskets onkeynodesandoverallprogresswasquantified.Therisklevelwasassessedbycombiningtheprobabilityinfluencematrix.The feasibilityofthemethodwasverifiedwithajacketprojectintheSouthChinaSeaasaexample.Itisshownthatthismethodcan accuratelylcateighsorkprocesptizethepriorityofskresponsestrategiesandprovideasientificdecisioaking basis for risk control in marine engineering progress.

Keywords：jacket; progress risk; schedule management; critical path method （CPM）

海上油气田开发是一项复杂的综合性工程，包括前期研究、方案设计、物资采办、陆上建造及海上安装调试等多个阶段，具有技术含量高、系统性强、周期长、投资规模大及环境约束强等特点。（剩余4160字）