添加胆汁酸作为风险因素用于新型结直肠癌预测模型的开发

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中图分类号： R311 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1671-4652（2025）02-0038-11

ABSTRACT：To explore the risk factors for colorectal cancer and todevelopa predictive model for colorectal cancer by combining serum levels of various bileacids.Aprospective study was conducted on patients who visited theDepartmentof GastrointestinalSurgeryatthe Afiliated Jiangdu Peoples Hospitalof Yangzhou University between 2O20and 2O24.Relevant medical records and laboratory test results，including serum bile acid subtypes measured byliquid chromatography， were collected.Patients withcolorectalcancerwerecompared withcontrolpatients toanalyzethediferences invariables. All patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7：3 ratio.Using univariate and multivariate lo gistic regresion analysis，a predictive model was graduallyconstructed in the training set，and nomograms，ROCcurves， calibrationcurves，and DCA curves were ploted.Thevalidation set Was then used to verify the model.Results showed that：A totalof421patients were included（217in thecolorectalcancer group;204 in thecontrol group）.Analysis of differentialvariables revealedthatincreasedage，malegender，historyofdiabetes，irregularcolonoscopy，family historyof colorectal cancer，historyof Helicobacter pylori infection，high BMI，low ALB，high GCA，high GCDCA，high TCDCA， and high TBA were more common in thecolorectal cancer group.Throughunivariate and multivariate logisticregression analysis，age，family historyofcolorectal cancer，historyof diabetes，colonoscopy frequency，historyof Helicobacter pylori infection，BMI，ALB，and GCA were identified as independent risk factors for colorectal cancer （ P<0.05 .The ROC curves of the training and validation sets showed AUC values ofO.79andO.75，respectively.Thecalibrationcurves demonstrated goodagreement，and the DCAcurves indicated that the predictive model had goodclinicalnet benefit.Multiplefactorscontributed to the developmentof colorectal cancer.This study，by incorporating serum bileacid subtypes， constructed a model with good predictive value.

KEY WORDS：colorectal cancer;predictive model;bile acids；risk factors

结直肠癌（colorectalcancer，CRC）是全球范围内最常见的恶性肿瘤之一，发病率居全球恶性肿瘤第三位，死亡率高居第二位，严重威胁人类健康1]。（剩余14794字）