未来气候变化对屏边三七地理分布的影响评价

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中图分类号：S-9 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-9902（2025）14-0029-05

Abstract：Panaxstipuleanatusisa ClassInationallyprotectedwildplantinChinawithsignificantmedicinalvalue. However，itsaowgogapicaldistributio，ighsesitivitytoclimaticconditios，andedangeredildpopulationsosercal conservationchallenges.Thisstudyutilized19distributionrecordsfromtheGobalBiodiversityInformationFacility（GBIF）and bioclimaticvariablesfromWorldlimtosimulatecurrentandfutureshiftsinsuitablehabitatsforPanaxstipuleanatusunder climatechange scenariosusing the Maximum EntropyModel （MaxEnt）.The modeldemonstratedhigh predictiveaccuracy（AUC τ= （204 0.997）.Current highlysuitable habitats span approximately 133 409km2 ，concentrated in southern Yunnan Province， China （e.g.， WenshanPrefectureandHonghePrefecture）andnorthern Vietnam.Futureprojectionsrevealeddivergenttrends：underthesp245 scenario（2021-2040）， suitable areas expanded by 38.7% ，whereas by 2041-2060，the ssp585 scenario projected a 14% decline insuitableareasunderss245butasignificantincreaseto11，851kmunderssp585.Keyclimaticdriversincludedmean annual temperature（Biol，contribution rate 26% ）and annual precipitation（Biol2，contribution rate 23.8% ），with optimal conditions identified as a mean temperature of ，annual precipitation of 1，782.6 mm， and annual temperature range of 19.3% ThestudhighlightsthesensitivityofPanaxstipuleanatushabitatstoclimatechange.Whilehighemisionscenarios（e.gsp585） mayexpandsuitableareasinthelongter，extremeclimaticshiftscouldexacerbatehabitatfragmentation.Targetedconservation strategies，includingabitatprotectionandoptimizedartficialcultivationareurgentlyeededtoensurebothspeciessurvivaland sustainableutilizationofmedicinalresources.Thesefindingsprovideascientificfoundationfortheconservationofendangered species and sustainable management of medicinal plants under global climate change.

Keywords： climate change; prediction； endangered species; environmental variable;suitable areas

屏边三七（Panax stipuleanatusH.T.Tsai &K.M.Feng）又名野三七，是人参属（PanaxLinn.）的多年生草本植物，具有散癡定痛等功效。（剩余5043字）