中国长江经济带粮食生产潜力空间测算及分区优化研究

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中图分类号：F301.21 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-1329（2026）01-0148-10

doi：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1329.2026.01.017

Evaluating and zoning the grain production potential of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

YUAN Chengcheng'， ZHOU Zhenju2*，LIU Hailing'，FAN Yulei'， YIN Yuqing'， LIU Liming

（1. CollegeofLand Science and Technology， China Agricultural University，Beijing 1O0193，China; 2.DepartmentofNaturalResourcesDevelopmentandUtilzation，MinstryofNaturalResourcesofthePeople'sRepublicofhina， Beijing 100812，China）

Abstract：Asanimportant grai-producingregioninsouthern China，improvingthegrain productionpotentialoftheYangtzeRiver EconomicBelt（REB）isofgreatsignificanceforensuringChina’sfoodsecurityByonstructingthePLUSmodelandGmodel，tis paperestimatestretypesof grainproductionpotentialintheYREBattecountyevelfor35，namelycultivatedlndareapotetial， grainsownareapotential，andgraiyieldperuitareapotetial.Italsodeliatesgrainproductiopotentialznesandputsfard dierentiatedpathwaysforimprovinggrainproductionpotential.Theresultsshowtat：Teaveragecounty-evecutivatedlandarea potential in the YREB is 1236.58hm2 ，and the total cultivated land area potential accounts for 3.03% of the existing cultivated land area. （2） The average county-level grain sown area potential in the YREB is 2.51×104hm2 ，and the total grain sown area potential accounts for 64.14% of the current grain sown area.（3） The average county-level grain yield potential in the YREB is 0.74t/hm2 ，accounting for 13.20% ofthecurrent grainyieldlevel.（4）Basedondiferentcombinationsofthetree typesof grainproductionpotential，thecountylevel grainproductionpotentialoftheYREBcanbedividedinto4frst-levelzonesand8second-levelznes.Thesefndingsindicate thatthe mainsourceoffuture improvementingrainproductionpotentialintheYREBistoprioritizeincreasingthegrainsownareaon thebasis ofstablingthscaleofcultivatedlandfollowedbyraisinggranyieldperuitarea.Tispaperprovidesanewpespective forenancinggrainproductiopotentialwithstrongpracticaloperabilityandcanserveasausefuleferecefortheEBadsilar regions in formulating policies to improve grain production potential.

Keywords： cultivated land; grain production potential; spatial zoning; China; Yangtze River Economic Belt

几十年来，我国通过农业技术进步、作物品种改良、农业基础设施建设等手段，用仅占世界 9% 的耕地养活了全球约 17% 的人口。（剩余15268字）