基于FLUS-InVEST模型的干旱区土地利用多情景模拟及碳储量预测

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中图分类号：P963 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-1329（2026）01-0121-10

Multi-scenario simulation and carbon storage prediction of land use based on FLUS-InVEST model in arid areas

Xiongjuan，WANG anshun

（1.School ofanagement， Gansu Agriculture UniversityLanzhou 73oo7o，Gansu，China; 2.Bureau ofNatural Resources ofLiangdang County，Liangdang 7424oo， Gansu，China; 3.LanzhoutituteofArideteorologyinaeteorologicaldminstration，）

Abstract：Ecosystemstructureandfunctionhavebenalteredbyndusechangesdrivenbynaturalandanthropogenicfactorswithuch changesignitlyotebsrapacityoustrct，anCityatediexia selectedasthestudyareaBasedonlandusedatasets i1o，2015，andOO，landusestatusquoanddyamictrendsweeaalyed andtheFLUSmodelcoupledwiththeInVESTmodelwasutilizedtosimulateandpredictlndusepatersandcarbonstoragefeatures under fourscenariosin2030.Keyresearchfindings weresummarizedasfollows：（1）From2010to2020，unusedlandandfarmland werthedominatedlandusetypesinSuzhouDistrict.Tereaofforestandgrassand，waterbodiesadconstructionlandsowed anupwardtrend，whilefarmlandareawitnesedacontiuousecline.（2）TheFLUSmodelyeldedalandusesimulatioaccuacyof 0.86forSuzhouDistrict，sowing highconsistencywithactuallandusespatialpattes.Amongthefourscenarios，thecomprehensive protectioscenariowasoptimalfor thefuturesustaabledevelopmentofstudyarea. （3）EcosystemcarbonstorageinSuzhouDistrict rose from 2010 to 2020，with a total increase of 3.0×104 t over the decade.From 2020 to 2030， carbon storage was projected to peak underthecompreesieprotectioenariofolowedyteologicalpotectioadaturalevelopentsenaiosadtlad protectionscenariowas thelowest.Thesefndings providedreferencesforregionallandusemulti-scenariosimulationandcabotorage prediction，ddetifdaefoalsaialplagtiooalpotedstbleot Keywords： landusechange;carbon storage prediction;FLUS-InVESTmodel; arid areas; SuzhouDistrictofJiuquan City

工业革命以来，全球大气二氧化碳浓度急剧升高引发气候变暖，进而驱动土地利用方式发生转变[1。（剩余17598字）