潮流能项目经济性及降本趋势分析

中图分类号：TK79；F407.2；P743 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1005—9857（2025）08—0041—08

Analysis on Economyand CostReduction Trend of Tidal Current Energy Projects

NI Na

（NationalMarine TechnologyCenter，Tianjin300112，China）

Abstract：Based on the structural analysis of marine energy fixed capital（CAPEX）and operating cost（OPEX）， combined withtheir impactonthe levelized electricitycost（LCOE），this paper studies the technical and economic cost related issesbyselecting projects intidal flowenergyoperationathomeandabroadastypicalcases.Based on the analysis of tidal currnt technology development trend and cost，combined with the lifecycle cost management process of tidal current array，differentcost reduction ways oftidalcurr-ent energyare discussd.Considering thecomplexity ofeach factor involved in influencing thecostand itsownvalueuncertainty，thebest waytooptimize thecostof flow energyis proposed.It is concluded that inorderto improve theeconomic benefitsof ocean energy industry，policies should focus on solving the financing problems of ocean energy projects，improve subsidy and support policies，and reduce the impact of CAPEX on LCOE.In the short term，the problem of high cost of tidal energy investment can be solved by providing subsidies，and more importantly，emphasizing the importance of ocean energy technology to penetrate the industrial chain，and improving competitiveness byreforming electricity prices inthe mediumand long term.

Keywords：Green and low-carbon，Tidal energy cost，Economy，Sensitivity analysis，Cost reduction trend

0 引言

党的二十大报告提出“统筹产业结构调整、污染治理、生态保护、应对气候变化，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，推进生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳发展”［1]。（剩余11989字）