岛屿型旅游地生态系统服务价值演变及其模拟预测

——以苏州西山岛为例

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中图分类号：X321 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-2006（2026）02-0289-10

Abstract：【Objective】Asanimportanttypeof touristdestinations，islands havesignificantpractical significancein promotingthedevelopmentof ecotourism through their ecologicalfunctions.Basedondifferent development scenariosand the current statusof tourism development in thestudyarea，propose interactive strategies foroptimizing the island's tourism structure and sustainable development.【Method】This study takes Xishan Island in Suzhou as the research area， supported by theories such as human-land relationship theoryand extended labor value theory，using landuse data in the year of 2010，2015，and2O20，combined withremote sensing dataanalysisandGIS spatial analysis methods，to reveal the spatiotemporal changes inlanduseand ecosystem value.BasedonthePLUS model，scientificallypredict the trends oflanduse change and ecosystem value change in fourfuture development scenarios of Xishan Island.【Result】（1）The areaof the garden was thelargest，decreasing firstandthen increasing，whilethe area of other land types increased， withthe highest growth ratein land waters.The transferarea of thegarden is the largest.（2）Theecosystem value continuedto increase，showing acharacteristicof "lowinthemiddleand high inthesurrounding areas".Land waters bodies have the highestvalue，folowed closely by gardens，and wetlands have the lowest value.The value and growth rateoffloodregulationand storagearethehighest，folowed closelybywatersourceconservation，andairpurificationis thelowest.（3）Thefour development scenarioshave thelargestreduction ingardenarea，withthe largest increase in land waters except for urban protection.Under natural development scenarios，land usechanges are balanced.Under urban conservation scenarios，theexpansion of land watersare suppessed.Thescenario of farmland protection has alleviatedthereductionof garden land.Theecologicalprotectionscenarioensures thegrowthofcultivatedforestsland and water bodies，enhances the ecological expansionrate，andisarelatively balanced development path.【Conclusion】 The study explores the evolution process of ecosystem service value in island tourismdestinations，simulates thechanging trendsunderdiferentscenarios，and providesatheoretical basisandpractical referenceforthe sustainabledevelopment of island tourism destinations.

Keywords：island tourism destination; land use change；ecosystem service value；Taihu Xishan Island

生态系统服务价值可直观反映生态系统功能[]，过去几十年中，学者逐渐意识到生态系统服务价值对于社会经济可持续发展的重大影响，相关评估研究呈现为内容多样、角度多变、尺度多维、方法多元等特点[2-5]。（剩余21177字）