乌梁素海流域产水量时空演变及驱动因素研究

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中图分类号：Q148;S757 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-2006（2026）02-0251-10

Abstract：【Objective】Basedon precipitation，climate，landuse/cover change（LUCC），soil and other data from 2000 to 2020 in the UlansuhaiNurbasin，this studyanalyzed the spatiotemporal evolutioncharacteristics of water yieldand revealedtheirdriving factors，aiming toprovideascientificbasis for formulatingrational waterresource protectionand utilization policies.【Method]The water yield module of the InVEST model was employed to simulate water yield during five periods （from 200O to 202O）inthe Ulansuhai Nurbasin.The geographical detector model（GDM）was used to analyzetheexplanatorypowerofvarious factorsonthespatialdiferentiationof wateryield changes，whilemultiscale geographically weighted regression （MGWR）was applied to examine the localized influence of driving factors across diffrent geographical locations.【Result】Duringthe study period，the water yield inthe Ulansuhai Nur basin showed an increasing trend，withaspatialdistributionpaternof“lowerin the westand higherintheeast”，whichwasconsistent withthetemporal trendandspatialdistributionof precipitation.Evapotranspirationlevelsexhibited minorfluctuations overall.LUCC trends werecharacterized bya reduction in the proportion of grasland and unused land. GDM results indicatedsignificantdiffrencesintheexplanatorypowerofvarious factorsonwateryieldspatial diferentiation，with elevation，soil，andthenormalizeddiferencevegetationindex（NDVI）identifiedasthedominant factors.MGWR simulationsrevealedthatclimaticfactorsandsoil showednegativeefectsonwateryield，whileotherfactorsshowed positive effects.Precipitation，elevation，andNDVIhad strongerinfluences，with significantspatialheterogeneity observedacrossallfactors.【Conclusion】Changes inwateryieldresultedfromthecombined effctsof multiplefactors.For futureecological conservationeffortsintheUlansuhaiNurbasin，comprehensiveconsiderationoftheimpactsof topography，climate，and changes in human activities on water yield services is essential.

Keywords：InVESTmodel;；geographical detector；multiscalegeographicallyweightedregression；wateryield；spatial differentiation；Ulansuhai Nurbasin

生态系统通过生态功能持续为人类提供产品与服务[1]，生态系统服务是指人类直接或间接从生态系统获得的各种惠益[2]，是人类福祉和社会可持续发展的基石[3]。（剩余19550字）