基于SD建模的新能源汽车市场发展预测研究

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中图分类号：U469.7 收稿日期：2025-03-17 DOI：10.19999/j.cnki.1004-0226.2025.06.009

Abstract：Inthecontextofglobalclimatechangeandeergycrisisinordertopromotetetransformationoftheutomobledustryandtheoptimizatiooftheenergstructure，itisofgreatsignificancetoaalyetenewenergyvehiclemarketandpredictetrend oftheindustry.Thispaperusesthesystemdynamics（SD）model，comprehensivelyconsideringtechnology，cost，consumptionand otherfactors，ssmesolicyconomicstabilitysteadydevelopmentofthnologyndifrastructure，integratesultiouedata withthehelpofVensimsoftwaremodelingandanalysis.Researchshowsthatthesalesvolumeandownershipof2024—2035newenergyvehicleswillgrowrapidly，withtchnologicalbreakthroughsandperfectinfrastructure，andthemarketwillshiftfrompolicydriven tomarketdriven.Basedonthis，suggestionsareputforwardonoptimizingsubsidies，acceleratingtheconstructionofchargingnet work，suprtingtechoogicaliovationndimprovingtheostmarketservicesstem，soatoelphialeadinteglobaleenergyvehicle market，achieve thegoalofcarbonneutrality，andpromote theglobalgreenandlow-carbondevelopment.

Key words：New energy vehicles;Market forecast;System dynamics;Development trend

1前言

全球气候变化与能源危机加速绿色低碳转型，新能源汽车成为产业核心。（剩余3492字）