基于岭回归模型的广西物流需求预测研究

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中图分类号：F272 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.09.002

Abstract：Logistcsmakesupournationaleconomyanditisalsothebridgethatconnectseverylinkinthenationaleconoy. Atthesametime，asa tertiaryindustry，ithasverygooddevelopment prospects.Basedontheindependent variablemulticolinearity，theGM1，1）modelwasusedtopreicttheindicatorswithigcorelationbetweensixelatedinfluencinfactors andfreightvolumeinthenextsixyearsandthentheridgeregressionequationwasbroughtintoacounttopredictthelogistics demandin Guangxi.Finallacording totheforecastresultsandthe"14thFive-YearPlanfortheDevelopmentofGuangxisLo gistics Industry"， some suggestions are put forward for the development of logistics in Guangxi.

Key words： logistics demand; forecasting; ridge regression; GM（1，1

0引言

《广西物流业发展“十四五”规划》明确提出，到2025年，广西将初步构建一个“高效集聚”、“区域协作”、“创新整合”、“智能绿色”和“安全可控”的现代物流体系，并将广西打造成“国内外双循环”的关键节点和中心。（剩余6958字）