基于现金流折现估值模型的人工智能企业估值分析

——以云从科技为例

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中图分类号：F275；F49 文献标识码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1672-2272.202504073

Artificial Intelligence Enterprise Valuation Analysis Using the Discounted Cash Flow Model：A Case Study of Cloudwalk Technology

Huang Guojian，Ren Gui （School of Economics，Shanghai University，Shanghai 2oo444，China）

Abstract：Against the backdrop of rapid industrydevelopment drivenby breakthroughs inartificial intelligence technology，this study addresses the critical chalenge of traditional valuation models‘ inadequacy for R&D-intensive tech companies by innovatively constructing a DCF valuation framework integrated with operational metrics.Focusing on Cloudwalk Technology-a STAR Market-listed enterprise-the research develops a dynamic cash flow projection model that adjusts conventional financial forecasting through user growth indicators.By incorporating the WACC capital cost calculation system and implementing a three-stage growth model to refine perpetual growth rate assumptions，it achieves precise discounting of free cash flows.Results demonstrate that the optimized DCF valuation shows onlya 0.62% deviation from the actual market capitalization，and reveal AI enterprises’distinctive forward-shifted nature of value creation，with a 3-5 year lag between R&Dinvestment and commercial returns，validating DCF's unique advantages in valuing technology innovators.

KeyWords：Cloudwalk Technology;Artificial Technology;Business Valuation;DCF

0 引言

在当前数字经济与实体经济深度融合的宏观背景下，人工智能技术正经历从技术突破转向产业赋能的模式转换。（剩余11384字）