基于系统动力学的河南省建筑业碳排放预测研究

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关键词：建筑业；碳排放；系统动力学；碳排放预测

中图分类号：TU241；X322 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168（2025）11-0058-08

DOI：10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.11.013

Research on Carbon Emissions Prediction ofHenan Province's Construction Industry Based on System Dynamics

DONG Runrun FU Guodong （Henan University of Technology，Zhengzhou 45oooo， China）

Abstract： [Purposes] This paper aims to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry of Henan Province，predict future carbon emissions，provide a basis for formulating emission reduction measures，and help achievement of the carbon peak in the construction industry. [Methods] Based on the literature review and the development situation of Henan Province，21 indicators were selected from five aspects： energy consumption， construction development， social development， economic development，and science and technology to establish a system dynamics model with the carbon emissions of the construction industry.Combined with the relevant policies of Henan Province，three scenarios of low-energy development，medium-energy development，and high-energy development were designed to predict the future carbon emissions of the construction industry in Henan Province.[Findings] The results show that under the low-energy development scenario，the growth rate of carbon emissions in the construction industry of Henan Province is the slowest，and the emission reduction effect is the best. [Conclusions] In the future，the emission reduction measures of carbon emissions in the construction industry of Henan Province should focus more on optimizing the energy structure and promoting the use of green building materials，while strengthening policy guidance to ensure the best emisson reduction effect. Keywords： construction industry; carbon emissions; system dynamics; carbon emissions prediction

0 引言

随着工业化和城市化进程的加速，全球气候变化成为不容忽视的重大环境问题。（剩余8394字）