基于黄河流域耕地变化与生态系统碳储量的情景模拟分析

打开文本图片集

关键词：土地利用；耕地空间格局；碳储量；PLUS模型；多情景模拟图分类号：F323.211；X171.1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672-2043（2025）09-2323-13 doi：10.11654/jaes.2024-0921

Abstract：Toinvestigatetheimpactoffarmlandchangesonecosystemcarbonstorage，thisstudyfocusedontheYelowRiverbasinnd employedtheLUSandInVESTmodelstosessthefectsoffarlandusechangesonterrstrialcosystemcarbonstorageinthebasin from20toO2o.Additionally，thestudyexaminedcarbonstorageprojectionsfor203Ounderthreediferentscenarios：natural development，ecologicalprotectionndfarmlandprotection.Theresultsevealedthatthepredictionmodeldevelopedinthisstudy achieved an accuracy rate of 88 % ，with robust classification accuracy and high reliability.Between 2OoO and 2020，the Yellow River basin lost22294kmofndwithsigniantesocedepleioandinsunteplenshent.By30underteologicalotetion and farmland protection scenarios，farmland loss was projected to decrease by 3001km2 and 2 086 km²，respectively，indicating a reduction in farmland loss.Under both protection scenarios，ecological carbon storage increased by 4.32×10′ Mg and 4.39×10′ Mg， respectively.Tesefindingshghlightthat，hilefarlandprotectionmeasureswerimplemented，egioalcarbonstorageotiedtorise.Thestudsealeditialispitsigadoeteldoicelo Yellow Riverbasin，withlandusechanges primarilydrivenbylocalpoliciesandinfluencedbyvarious humanfactors. Keywords：land use;spatial patternofcropland; carbon stock; PLUS model; multi-scenario simulation

在当前全球气候变化的背景下，各国和地区正致力于探索减少温室气体排放以及提高碳储存能力的有效途径1。（剩余21686字）