基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的海南省冷链物流需求预测分析

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中图分类号:F752.8 文献标志码:A DOI:10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.18.038
orecastandAnalysis ofColdChainLogistics Demand in HainanProvince Basedon the GreyGM(1,1)Model
PAN Zhu,CHENHuannan,DING Qi,HUIQing(Hainan CollegeofEconomics and Business,Haikou57127,China)
Abstract: Withtheupgradingof global tradeandconsumption,thedemandforcoldchainlogisticscontinues to grow.Coldchain logisticsisanimportantpartof theconstructionofHainan Free TradePort.Acurate forecastingofcoldchainlogistics demand in HainanProvinceisofgreat significanceforthe governmenttoformulaterelevant policies,forenterprises tooptimizeresource allocationadimprovelgisticseficiencyThispaperakesthecoldchanlogisticsdemandinHainanrovinceastheresearchobject andconductsanin-depthforecastanalysisbasedonthegreyGM(1,1)model.Itfirstlyintroducesthebasicconceptofcoldchain logistics,andelaboratesonthfundmental principlesofthegreyGM(1,1)model.Secondly,byorganizingandanalyzinghistoical dataoncoldchainlogisticsdemandinHianProvince,aforecastingmodelbasedonthereyGM(1,1modelisonstructed,dthe forecastingresultsareaalyzdanddiscussed.Finallythispaperputs forwardcorespondingpolicysuggestions,amingtprovide useful references and decision-making support for the development ofthe cold chain logistics industry in Hainan Province.
Key words: the grey GM(1,1) model; cold chain logistics; demand forecasting; Hainan Province
0引言
随着全球经济的快速发展和消费需求的持续升级,冷链物流作为现代供应链体系中的关键一环,在保障农产品和食品药品消费安全、推动经济高质量发展等方面,发挥着愈发重要的作用。(剩余3330字)