基于CORDEX数据的黄河上游未来极端降水变化预估

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大键词：极端降水；气候变化；CURDEX；黄河上游

中图分类号：TV62;TV882.1 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.07.025引用格式：刘梓萱，毛睿，施翠翠，等.基于CORDEX数据的黄河上游未来极端降水变化预估[J].人民黄河，2025，47（7）：156-162.

Projection of Future Extreme Precipitation in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on CORDEX Data

LIU Zixuan’，MAO Rui1，SHI Cuicui1'²， ZHAO Huaiqun¹，WANG Xueyan' （1.School of National Security and Emergency Management，Beijing Normal University， Zhuhai ，China; 2.School of Systems Science，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 1Oo875，China）

Abstract：ReseoirssteseasritialcolocalersdpivotalodsiwatersedwatersourcemaagntHoweehr stabilityisincreasiglyhallngdyeoinfrequcyofetreepreipiationeventsinducedylobalwaing.Thseeventsatrig gercascadingdisstersposingsigifcanteats toualifedsocconoicevelopentinadgio.issudyusedonte upperreachesoftheYelowRiverandutilizedhigh-resolutiondatafromtheCoordinatedRegional ClimateDownscalingExperient（CORDEX），specificallyderiedfrotheEastAsiadmainFurbiasoectionmetodsoflearsaling，quantilemaing，Quatl-Qdjust ment，ndvariancesaling-wereapldtevauateeirectivnessioretigprecipiatiodataasdoomparativeaalyisthe Quantile-QadustentethddmostratedhebsoverallorectioperfomanendwasthreoreseletedtocalibateCORXfuture periodsiulatios.UndertheRCP2.6senario，thespatialdistributionofulti-yeareanetrmeprecipitationindiceuring26-99 remainsonsistentwithtestorcalperiod，showingonlyslightincreassIncontrst，udertheigemisionCP8.5senaroeeral indices rise significantly，with enhanced regions mainly located in central Qinghai，and south Inner Mongolia.

Key words：extreme precipitation； climate change；CORDEX；upper reaches of the Yellow River

极端降水是影响黄河上游库坝群安全的重要致灾因子。（剩余8617字）