基于3种算法的海南州泥石流易发性预测及致灾因子研究

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关键词：泥石流；致灾因子；易发性预测;RF算法;GBDT算法;XGBoost算法；海南藏族自治州中图分类号：P642.22 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.07.003引用格式：胡少伟，郭要辉，叶宇霄，等.基于3种算法的海南州泥石流易发性预测及致灾因子研究[J].人民黄河，2025，47（7）：13-19.

Study on Debris Flow Susceptibility Prediction and Disaster-Causing Factors in Hainan Based on Three Algorithms

HU Shaowei 1，2 ，GUO Yaohui²，YE Yuxiao¹， LIAO Yi ¹， ZHANG Zhiwei²，，LI Liang² （1.College of Water Conservancy and Transportation， Zhengzhou University，Zhengzhou 45Oo01，China; 2.School of Civil Engineering， Chongqing University，Chongqing 4Oo045，China）

Abstract：Inodertosrentedisasterausingfactors tatiducedebrisfows，evaluatetepefoanceof tetreemachilaingal gorithmsofRF，GBDndXGBot，preditigtesuseptiblityfebrisos，ndprovdeferenesfgeolocalsastert anddisasterpreventionandmitigationintheareaspronetodebrisflows，akingHainanTibetanAutonomousPrefecture，QinghaiProvinceas thestudyaraandasedonstorcaldebrisflowisasterdataasedoteitiallseleced7ifuencngfactorsandteeasoe tioncoeficientfebrsfodssters，edsstercausigfctorstatiducedebrsereseedTemaingdisastecausigc torswereclasifidnd8ombatiosofdisaster-ausingfctos ereset.Tethe macheangalgiofRF，GBD，andXGoost wereusedtopredictthesusceptibilityofebrisflow.Thpredictionfectwasevaluatedyindicatorssuchasaccuracyateprecisiorate， recallrate，soendOAUC.esulssotata）distaefroeiverhael，levatio，oilrodibilityopgacs tureindexaliallaoias ture，curvature，lointofvatiooevationdsptareisastecaingfactosatiduedebrisflowiestudy area.Amogtlevatiostaefroiveaeloliltpogapcoedalfallal vegetationndexaretheaindisaster-causingfactos.b）WhentetreealgoitsofRF，GBDandXGBoostareusedtopredictthlikeliodfebrisflow，thepredictionfctbasedontedisaster-causingfactrcombiationC7（tiscombiationdosnotcosiderslopedirection）isthebst，andthepredictionefectsbasedontedisaster-causigfactorcombnatiosC5（thiscombnationdoesnotcosiderurvature，coeficientofvarationofelevationandlopedirection）andC8（thisombiationcosidersalldisaster-ausingfactors）arealso goodc）Whenpredictingthesuseptibilityofebrisflowsbasedonthdsaster-causingfactorcombinationC7，theankingofteadvantages and disadvantages of the three algorithms is XGBoost， GBDT and RF.

Keywords：debrisflow;disaster-causingfactors；susceptibilityprediction;RFalgori;GBDalgorit;XGBostalgoritHaan betan Autonomous Prefecture

0 引言

泥石流是由强降水或洪水等诱发的一种地质灾害，其挟带大量泥沙、石块和巨砾等固体颗粒沿山谷或坡地快速流动，具有突发性强、破坏力大、灾害严重、波及范围广等特点[1-4]。（剩余8071字）