基于复杂网络与数值模拟的暴雨-洪水-泥石流灾害链分析

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关键词：暴雨-洪水-泥石流灾害链；复杂网络;FLO-2D；关键节点；关键边图分类号：TV62;TV882.1 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.07.020用格式：，，，等.基于复杂网络与数值模拟的暴雨-洪水-泥石流灾害链分析[J].人民黄河，2025，47（7）：124-130

Analysis of Rainstorm-Flood-Debris Flow Disaster Chain Based on Complex Networks and Numerical Simulation

YANG Haibo 1，2 ，LI Mengyu1， CAI Yingchun 1，2 ， DENG Yu3 ， LI Junhua³ （1.School of Water Conservancy and Transportation， Zhengzhou University， Zhengzhou 45Oo01，China; 2.State Key Laboratoryof Tunnel Boring Machine and Inteligent Operationand Maintenance，Zhengzhou 45Oo1，China; 3.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research，YRCC， Zhengzhou 450oO3，China）

Abstract：Severrinfalleventsoftentriggercascadinghazardssuchasflashfloodsanddebrisflows，formingintricatedisasterhainsat posesignificantatstcialndaualsowessastillisutiexpgtea tionrelationshipsamongulti-dsasterodesandtheirsupermposediss.Itissudy，wecombinedcomplexnetworkteorywihFO-2D numericalsimulationtoanalyzetheristo-food-debrisflowdisasterchin.TakingShishugouinLuanchuanCounty，HenanProvinceasa casestudy，tedyamicevolutioncharacteriticsoftedisasterchainundertebackgroudofteextremerainstomdisasterouedn ZhengzouonJuly2O，2O21wereanalyzed.Theresultsindicatethata）thenumericalsimulationresultsindicatethatthemaximuflwvelocity of the debris flow can reach 6.56m/s ，with a maximum deposition depth of 7.30m . The proportions of high，medium and low-risk areas are 3.61% ， 17.65% and 78.74% respectively；b） damage or blockage of drainage systems，damage to electrical facilities，urban flooding， submergedvehicles，mudslidesandbackflowofiverwaterrepresenttheciticalodesinthisasterchainnetwork；）thekeydgsinthe network include backflow of river water $$ urban flooding，urban flooding $$ submerged vehicles，urban flooding $$ damage to electrical facilities，damage to riverbanks $$ river channel blockage，submerged vehicles $$ casualties.These findings effectively identify the critical nodesandweaklinkswithindisasterchainsfromadynamicevolutionperspective.Furthermore，thestudyelucidatestheinteractiosbetween multipleazadodesandteirimpactondsasterpropgatioddresingeygasindaicdisasteainevauationadiskt Theresults provide a scientific basis fordisaster prevention，mitigation measures and emergency management planning.

KeyWords：rainstorm-flood-debris flow disaster chain；complex networks；FLO-2D；key nodes；key edges

0 引言

全球气候变暖造成极端天气、气象灾害频发，其中暴雨灾害带来的次生灾害严重威胁基础设施及生命财产安全。（剩余9727字）