城市居民出行方式选择的随机演化博弈分析

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中图分类号：O223；TP399 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-8228（2025）09-28-06

On the Stochastic Evolutionary Game Analysis of Urban Residents’ Travel Mode Choic

Chen Yikai

（CollgeofMathematicsandStatistics，GuizouUniversityofinanceandEconomicsGuiyang，Guizou55o，China）

Abstract：Toadressthechalengesofubantraffcongesionndenvironmntalpolutionthisstudyexploesthcoevolutionof urbanresidents'travelmodechoicesandlocalgovernmentstrategiesunderuncertainconditions，basedonevolutionarygametheory. Toaccountforrandomdisturbancesduring theevolutionaryprocess，Gaussanwhitenoisewasintroduced toconstructarandom evolutionarygamemodel，folowedbynumericalsimulationanalysis.Theresearchfidingsindicatethatrandomdisturbancsinan uncertainenvironmentcanenhancetheevolutionaryratesofbothresidentsandlocalgovernments；reducingresidents’low-carbon travelcosts，increasingtheirhigh-carbontravelcostsandtheaditionalbenefitsoflow-carbontravelaswellasincreasingthe intensityoflocalgovernmentsubsidies，canallsignificantlyincreasetheproportionofresidentschoosinglow-carbontravelmoes; penaltiesimposedbyhigher-levelgovermentshaveapositiveeectonencouraginglocalgovernmentstoadoptguidingstrategies， butoverlyseverepenaltiesmayweakentheirproactiveguidanceeforts.Basedonthesefindings，policyrecommendationsare proposed to enhance residents' willingness to adopt low-carbon travel modes.

Keyords：UrbanTraffic;TravelModeChoice；StochasticEvolutionaryGameModel;UrbanResidents;Numerical Simulation

0引言

随着城市的快速扩张，居民生产生活出行需求不断提升，交通污染等问题日趋严重。（剩余8458字）