基于PLUS模型的耕地资源时空变化特征及其驱动因素研究

——以安徽省马鞍山市为例

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关键词：耕地时空变化；驱动力因子；PLUS模型；马鞍山市

中图分类号：F323.211 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168（2025）08-00102-06

DOI：10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.08.019

Temporal and Spatial Variation and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land ResourcesBasedonthePLUSModel

-ACaseStudyofMa'anshanCity，AnhuiProvince GAO Jingjing'HE Xuanlei² （1.School ofLand Engineering，Chang'an University，Xi'an 71OO61，China; 2.Shaanxi Institute of Geological Survey， Xi'an 71Oo68，China）

Abstract： [Purposes] This paper aims to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of changes in cultivated land resources and the driving factors behind them using the PLUS model.[Methods] Taking Ma'anshan City of Anhui Province as an example，based on the relevant data from 2OOO to 2O2O，the direction and scale of cultivated land change were analyzed by land use transfer matrix，and the change speed and intensity of cultivated land use were evaluated by land use dynamic degree and change range. The standard deviation ellipse and center of gravity migration model were used to reveal the trend of spatial distribution，and thePLUS model was used to simulate the change of cultivated land and accurately identifyitsdriving factors.[Findings] Theresults show thatcropland in Ma'anshan hasgenerally decreased，with a higher reduction in the southeasternareas than in the northwest.Therate of decline is slowing down，and efforts to balance cropland loss and gain are steadily improving. Key driving factors include average annual temperature，distance from the county seat， and GDP.[Conclusions] This study provides a basis for regional cropland planning，protection，and sustainable use，promoting coordinated ecological development.

Keywords： temporaland spatial variationof cultivated land; driving factors;PLUS model ; Ma'anshan City

0 引言

2 数据与方法

耕地是土地资源的核心组成部分，是农业发展的根本支撑，是国家粮食安全的重要保障。（剩余4592字）