MaxEnt模型优化预测气候变化下西藏瑞香狼毒潜在适生区

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中图分类号：S812.6 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2025）08-2603-15

Abstract：This study focuses on Stellera chamaejasme L. as the research subject，utilizing climate factors from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6（CMIP6），topographic data，and distribution point data of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang. The ENMeval package of R was employed to optimize the feature class （FC）and regularization multiplier（RM）.Based on the MaxEnt model，this research simulated the changes in suitable habitats for Stelera chamaejasmeL.in Xizang undercurrent and future climatic conditions and analyzed the migration characteristics of its centroid of distribution.The model prediction results indicated that six major environmental factors dominate the distributionof Stelera chamaejasmeL.in Xizang. Currently，the most suitabledistribution area of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang was primarily concentrated in Changdu City. Under different climate scenarios，the suitable distribution area of Stelera chamaejasme L. will undergo significant changes，with the potential for further expansion of highly suitable areas compared to the current situation.The centroid migration results suggested a trend of southwestward shift in the distribution center of Stellera chamaejasme L.. This study predicted the changes in suitable habitats for Stellera chamaejasmeL.under current and future climatic conditions，elucidated the impact of climate change on its suitable distribution areas，and pro vided an ecological theoretical basis for thecomprehensive control and dynamic monitoring of Stellra chamaejasme L. in Xizang.

Key words：Stellera chamaejasme L. ;MaxEnt model;ENMeval; Prediction of suitable habitats;CMIP6

瑞香狼毒（StellerachamaejasmeL.）是瑞香科（Thymelaeaceae）狼毒属的一种多年生草本植物，在民间常被称为断肠草或山萝卜，其茎皮坚韧，纤维含量高。（剩余19523字）