古滑坡肇灾演化流程分析及稳定性评价

打开文本图片集

MIAO Yuanliang， ZHANG Shukun，MENG Chao（Shandong Water Conservancy Group Co.，Ltd.， Ji' nan 25O014，China）

Abstract：Toaccuratelygraspthedisaster initiationandevolutionprocessand stable stateof specialancientlandslides，based onthegeologicalconditionsandbasiccharacteristicsof theancientlandslides，carryoutanalysisof theirdisaster initiation influencig factorsandevolutionprocess；Basedonlandslidedeformationmonitoringdata，afterremovingrandom noisefrom landslidedeformationdata，thestabitystatus evaluationanddevelopment trend evaluationof landslidesarecarredoutthrough sharppoint mutationanalysisandmulifractal trendfluctuationanalysis，respectively.Theresults indicatethattheinfluencing factors ofancientlandslidesarerelativelycomplete，and theirevolution process mainlyincludes theearlyformationperiodand the nearrevival periodof ancient landslides，with clearstagesof theevolution process；Meanwhile，through sharppoint mutation analysis，the mutation characteristic values of each monitoring point are all greater than 0 ，indicatingthatthestability of thelandslideisinastablestate；TheresultsofmulifractaldetrendedfluctuationanalysisshowthatthetraditionalHurst exponentofeachmonitoringpointisgreaterthanO.5，indicatigthatthecumulativedeformationof thelandslidewillcontiueto increaseandthestabilitywilltendtodevelopinanunfavorabledirection.Therefore，landslidepreventionandcontrolshouldbe carried out as soon as possble. The research results can provide reference and inspiration for similar projects.

KeyWords：ancient landslide；impactfactorsof disaster；disastercausing evolutionprocess；stabityevaluation; development trend

0 引言

近年，随着水利大坝等工程修建，库区水位不仅上升，还存在周期性波动，诱发复活了一些特殊型古滑坡，如顺层深层岩质古滑坡。（剩余6975字）