考虑相邻点影响的基坑沉降优化组合预测分析

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关键词：基坑；沉降变形；单项预测模型；优化处理；组合预测

中图分类号：TU43 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1005-8249（2025）03-0122-06

DOI：10.19860/j.cnki.issn1005-8249.2025.03.022

Abstract：Inorder toachieve high-precision predictionoffoundation pitsetlementanddeformation，basedonthesummaryof theshortcomingsoftraditionalcombinationpredictionmodels，asinglepredictionmodelscreningisfirstcarriedout，andthe parametersofeach singlepredictionmodelareoptimized；Secondly，furtheroptimizationof nonlinearcombinationand distance between nodes，aswellasconsiderationofoptimizationofadjacent nodes，iscarriedout toachieveoptimizedcombination predictionoffoundation pitsetlement deformation.Exampleanalysis shows that：TheELMmodel，GM（1，1）model，and SVR model have goodcomplementarityandcan beusedas basic prediction models.Throughoptimized combination processing in thesetlement deformation prediction process，the averagerelative error of the predicted resultsranges from 1.56% to 1.65% ，with high predictionaccuracyand robustness.The prediction resultsarecompared with those of traditional models， andit isconcluded thatthepredictionmodelhasrelativelybeterpredictionaccuracy，whichverifiestheefectivenessof its construction ideaandissuitableforpredicting foundation pitsetlementdeformation.Throughresearch，weaimto provide theoretical guidance for the study of deformation laws in foundation pits.

Key Words：foundationpit；selement deformation；singlepredictionmodel；optimizationtreatment；combinationprediction

0 引言

基坑工程的复杂性强、施工难度较大，在其施工过程中，时有事故发生，如2015年7月，禅城区某工程基坑一侧出现坍塌，虽未造成人员伤亡，但经济损失严重；2017年5月，深圳某基坑塌方事故，造成3死1伤，损失严重；如2024年6月，成都某基坑出现垮塌事故，造成了较大的经济损失[1]。（剩余6911字）