基于价格、偏好与灾害不确定性的森林最优轮伐期方法学演进

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中图分类号：S7-9 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-2006（2025）05-0267-12

Abstract：【Objective】Market price，decision-makerpreferences，and natural disasters constitute threemajor uncertaintiesafecting sustainable forestmanagement.Advancing methodologies fordetermining optimal forestrotation periodsunder these uncertainties isa critical scientific isue that needs tobeaddressed.Resolving thiscan provide nature-based solutions in sustainable forestry mauagementandaddressing climatechange.【Method】This studyrevisits theclassical Faustmann modeland itsevolution，exposes its limitationsintheapplicationsof sustainable forest managementand synthesizes methodological advancements inoptimal rotation period determination.【Result】（1）Real optionsanalysis enhances flexibilityin forestland valuation，whiledynamic programmingservesasthe primaryanalytical toolforoptimal rotation decisions under uncertainty.Selecting appropriate price models basedon market characteristicsand historicaldata improves decisionaccuracy.（2）Preferencesof both policymakersand forest managers significantly influenceoptimalrotationperiods.Policyuncertainty leads forest managers to tend toward earlier harvesting，whilethe individualrisk preferences shapestrategiesagainstprice fluctuations.ThePresslerindicatoroffersaneffectiveex-ante decision-making approach incorporating risk expectations.（3）Natural disasters disrupt timbervolumegrowth and acceleratecarbon releasefromthecarbon sequestration capacityofforests.Managers shortenrotations to minimize losses. Penalizig disaster-inducedcarbonemissionscan incentivize managers to internalizedisasterrisks，reducing both frequency andseverityof impacts.【Conclusion】This studyestablishesa methodological framework adressing multidimensional uncertainties through integrated real options，dynamic programming，andrisk preference quantification tols，overcoming static limitations of traditional models.Futureresearchshould：develop dynamic price-policy-disaster coupling model；create AI-based multi-objective optimization systems；and design carbon penalty mechanisms toalign the aligmment of ecological-economic goals decision support for climate-smart forest management.

KeyWords： optimal rotation period;Faustmann model;market price；decision-maker preference； natural catastrophic events;sustainableforest management

森林兼具生态、经济和社会等多重效益，选择不同的森林经营模式产生的经营效果各异。（剩余29146字）