多品种小批量产品需求量的组合预测模型研究

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ResearchontheCombined ForecastingModel forDemand ofMulti-varietyand Small-batch Products

JIN Huifeng,WANG Jijian (ZhejiangIndustry& TradeVocational College,Wenzhou 325oo3,China)

Abstract:To improve the forecastingaccuracyofdemand formulti-varietyandsmall-batch products,this paperconstructs two combinedforecastingmodelsinaseriesmannerbyintegratingtheMovingAveragemethod(MA),ExponentialSmoothingetod (ES)and Autoregressive model (AR),namelythe MA-AR modelandtheES-AR model.Then,the time seriesof demanddata covering177weeksfor6typesofproductsareadoptedformodelconstructionandforcastingerorevaluation.Theresultsshowthat: (1)theforecastingeroroftecombiedmodelsissignicantlysmalerthanthatoftesinglemodels;(2)theforecastingeorofte ES-ARmodelissignificantlysmalerthanthatoftheMA-ARmodel.TheES-ARcombined forecasting modelfeaturessimple principles,easyoperatiadtrongalabilityItiapabletiriesithatiaryiaraduadraticplyomaltrds thus providing a feasible and effective method for enterprises to formulate production plans.

Keywords:multi-variety;small-batch;forecastingof demand; combined forecasting model; timeseries forecasting me

0引言

随着国内国际市场需求的不断扩大，顾客的需求日益个性化和多样化，于是多品种、小批量生产方式逐步成为企业的主流模式。（剩余13077字）