中国茶叶出口RCEP成员国的影响因素及潜力分析

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中图分类号：F752.658 文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-3150（2025）12-24-8

Abstract：This paper focuses on China's tea export trade to RCEP member countries and comprehensively analyzes the influencing factors and trade potential byusing multiple methods.The research first reviews relevantliterature and clarifiestheinnovation points.Basedonthedata from2013 to2023，it is found thattheoverallexportvolume isata highlevel butlacks stability，andthereare fluctuations inexportvalue，total volume，majordestination countres，and category proportions.Byconstructing an extended traditional gravitymodeland incorporating multiple variableanalyses， itis shownthatfactorssuchastheGDPofthedestinationcountry，thetotal importand exportvolumeofthedestination country，exchangerate，transportation distance，teaproduction，and populationsizehave significant impacts.After calculating the trade potentialcoefficient，the relevantcountries areclasified into "potential gianttype"，"potential development type"，and "potential reshaping type"，with the majorityofRCEPcountries belonging to the "potential development type".The research suggests that the government should enhance policy communication， promote trade facilitation，increase industrialsupportandresearchanddevelopment investment;andfordiferentpotential typesof countries，implement policies fromaspects such as improving product qualityand deepening regional cooperation to promote the development of tea export trade.

Keywords： RCEP， tea export， gravitational model， trade potential

中国是世界茶文化的起源地，茶产业一直是中国农业中具有比较优势的产业之一，在出口创收方面有着很大的潜力。（剩余8762字）