第16届全运会田径投掷项目各主要省市竞技实力前瞻
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Prospect of Competitive Strength of Main Provinces and Municipalitiesin Track and Field Throwing Events of the 16th National Games
CAO Siyul，LI Ting²
nheTechnical InstituteTaizhoubranchofJiangsumechanicalandelectrical，TaizhouJiangsu，2253o，China; 2.Taizhou experimental school， Taizhou Jiangsu，2253oo，China.）
Abstract：Toreveal theevolutionarylawsof thecompetitivepatternof throwing events intheNational Games，this study takes thecompetitiondataof throwing events from the13th to15th National Games as theresearchobjects. Adoptingmethodssuchasstaticanddynamicanalysis，regional comparison，modelconstructionand prediction，it systematically explores the evolutionof competitive strength among provincesand cities，regional diferences，and overall development trends，and constructs a three-dimensional evaluation systemof "medal indicators + performance indicators + potential indicators".Basedon the Grey PredictionModel，a prospect for the 16th National Games is proposed.Theresults showthat：In thepast three sessions，theprovincialand municipal patternofthrowing events has presented thecharacteristicsof"traditionalpowerful provincesmaintaining stabilitywith moderateadjustments，and emergingprovincesandcitiesachieving targetedbreakthroughs".Jiangsu，Shandong，and Hebeihavesteadilyremained inthefirst echelon，whileHenan，Hubeiandother provinceshavestepped intothesecondechelonthrough intensive cultivationofspecificevents.Regionalcompetitivestrength showsapaternof "strongerintheeastthaninthe west，and strongerinthenorththaninthesouth".EastChinaisthecorecompetitiveregion，withregionalgapscontinuouslyexpanding andsignificantpolarization.Theoverallcompetitiveleveloftheevents hassteadilyimproved，withemarkableprogressin men's discus throw，women'sshotputandother events;scientific trainingandpolicysupportare thecore drivingforces.The constructedevaluationsystemisconsistent withtheactualcompetitionpater.Itispredictedthatthe16thNationalGames willcontiuetheharacteristicsof"monopolybypowerfulprovincesandntensivecultivationofspecificvents"，Jiangsuis expectedtodefend its leading position，and emerging provincesandcities willfurther challenge themedal pattern.
Key words：National games;Throwing events; Competitive strength; Evaluation system; Grey prediction
中图分类号：G808文献标识码：A
中华人民共和国全国运动会（全运会）是国内规模最大、级别最高的综合性体育赛事，投掷项目涵盖铅球、铁饼、标枪、链球4小项。（剩余9929字）