“一带一路”背景下海外高端基建项目建设风险管理研究

——以以色列特拉维夫轻轨红线项目为例

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Abstract：Underthe“Belt andRoad”Initiative，theRed Line LightRail Project in Tel Aviv，Israel，is the first high-end market lightrail projectconstructed by Chinese enterprises in a developed country.The effectivenessof its risk management has significant reference valuefor Chinese enterprises to expand overseas high-end infrastructure markets.Toaccurately identifyandcontrol project risks，athree-in-one risk assssment systemof“Delphi Method-Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method”was established，and anempirical analysis was conducted basedonthisproject astheresearchobject.Firstly，five primaryrisk factors were systematicallyidentified，it contained natural，economic，management，political，and technical，totaling 15secondary risk factors.Secondly， combined with expert opinions，the risk was quantitatively evaluated using the Analytic Hierarchy Processand Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method.Finaly，targeted response strategies were formulated forcore risk points.The studyshowsthat the overallrisk levelof theTelAvivLight RailRedLine Project isof mediumrisk.Theorderof impact degree of various risks is as follows：political risk > management risk > technical risk > natural risk > economic risk. Among them，war and unrest，poorcoordination among departments，and differences in construction standards are the keyrisk factors among theprimaryrisk factors.Thestandardized risk assssment framework foroverseas high-end infrastructure projects constructedby Chinese enterprises，which was established inthis research，canprovide theoretical support and practical referenceforChinese enterprises to improve overseas engineering risk management levels and reduce project failure rates.

Keywords ： international engineering;risk management； case study; light rail red line project

0引言

近年来，随着我国“走出去”战略不断深化和“一带一路”倡议持续发展，中资企业参与海外工程的重心逐渐从发展中国家的传统基建向发达国家的高端基建项目转移。（剩余10426字）