双碳目标下基于多场景应用的川渝地区氢需求侧储能预测研究

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中图分类号：TB9;TH48 文献标志码：A文章编号：1674-5124（2025）08-0172-10

Abstract： In the context of the global energy transition towards low-carbon，hydrogen has atracted the attention oforganizations worldwide due to itsabundant resources，high energydensity，eco-friendline，and diverse application scenarios.Therefore， by studying the application of hydrogen energy in each demand side， finding out the causal relationship among various factors in the demand side，and constructing the hydrogen demand side energy storage prediction model， so as to predict and analyze the hydrogen energy storage on the three demand sides of chemical industry， transportation and power in Sichuan and Chongqing.The research findings show that the model has a small error and is suitable for hydrogen demand-side energy storage prediction in the Chongqing-Sichuan region.In 2030，the hydrogen energy storage in the chemical demandside sector in the Chongqing-Sichuan region should reach 11.619×104 tons， the hydrogen energy storage in the transportation demand-side sector should reach 4.051×104 tons， and the hydrogen energy storage in the power demand-side sector should reach 2.807×104 tons， and all of them will show an upward trend in the coming years.The conclusion is that the hydrogen application scenarios in the Chongqing-Sichuan region have great prospects，and increasing investment in hydrogen energy storage in the region willhelp accelerate the energy transition towards low-carbon and provide a Chongqing-Sichuan practical model for China's hydrogen energy industry development.

Keywords： Sichuan-Chongqing region; double carbon; hydrogen energy storage forecast; system dynamics; grey model

0 引言

面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战，国际社会普遍确立了碳减排与碳中和的目标。（剩余13784字）