基于遥感数据与作物模型结合的重庆市水稻估产方法

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中图分类号： S511;S127 文献标识码：A 文章编号： 1000-4440（2025）05-0893-12

Abstract：Riceisaprimaryfoodcrop globall，andaccurate predictionof itsyield isof greatsignificanceforfoodsecurityandagricultural resource management.ThisstudyusedtheORYZA（V3）crop modeland MODIS remote sensingdatato establisha rice yield estimation model for Chongqing.The main conclusions were as follows：thecrop parameters inthe model werecalibratedusingricestagedsowing experimentdata.Thecalibrationresultsshowed that thesimulationerorofthemodel for the growth period was less than 5% ，and the determination coefficients（ R2 ）between the simulated and measured values of total aboveground biomass（ WAGT ）andpaniclebiomass （WSO）exceeded O.97o.The normalized root mean square error（nRMSE）waslessthan 22.0% ，whichimproved the applicability of the model in Chongqing.Through regressionanalysis of LAI and rice yield under multiple parametercombinations of the model，aregression model of LAI andriceyieldundertheoptimalcombinationdate（182nd dayof theyear，July1）was established.Basedon this，

the estimation of rice yield in Chongqing in 2O23 was completed with an average accuracy of 87% ，and the overall effect wasgood，especiallinthemainriceproducingareassuchasthewestern，central，andsoutheasternregions，wherethe accuracywas higher.Theresearch results confirm thatcombining crop models withremotesensing datacan efectively improve theaccuracyof regionalcrop yieldestimationand show great application prospects inthefieldofcropyield prediction.

Key words： rice；crop models；remote sensing yield estimation；data combination

水稻作为中国最重要的粮食作物之一，其播种面积和总产量分别占中国粮食作物总播种面积、总产量的 25% 和 31%[1] ，因此水稻在保障中国粮食安全中占有极其重要的地位。（剩余13462字）