基于PLUS与InVEST模型的江苏省碳储量变化模拟及预测

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关键词：碳储量;PLUS模型；InVEST模型;江苏省

中图分类号：F301.2，X171.1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168（2025）07-0098-05

DOI：10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.07.019

Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Changes in Jiangsu ProvinceBasedonPLUSandInVESTModel

JING Xiaorong （College of Land Engineering，Chang'an University，Xi'an 71OO54，China）

Abstract：[Purposes] This puper studies study the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks to providea scientific basis for promoting sustainable regional development.[Methods]Based on the land use data of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2O20，the PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in carbon stocks from 1990 to 2O20，and to predict the changes in carbon stocks in Jiangsu Province under different scenarios in 2O3o.[Findings] ① The overall trend of carbon stock in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 202O is declining，with a decrease of 201.66×10 t.The transferof arable land to construction land is the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock.In spatial distribution，the carbon stock is higher in the north of Jiangsu Province and lower in the south of Jiangsu Province. ② Compared with 2O2O，the carbon stocks under the four different scenarios in Jiangsu Province in 2O3O show a decreasing trend， with the smallest decrease in carbon stocks under the cropland protection scenario and the largest decrease in carbon stocks under the urban development scenario. [Conclusions] The cropland protection scenario has the highest carbon stock，and the cropland protection scenario can significantly inhibit the reduction of carbon stock compared with other scenarios.The results of the study can provide data support for enhancing ecosystem carbon storage in Jiangsu Province. Keywords： carbon storage; PLUS model; InVEST model; Jiangsu Province

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