多阶段攻防对抗体系效能评估MS-GERT模型

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中图分类号：C935 文献标志码：A DOI：10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.07.17

Abstract： Effectivenessis an important indicator for measuring the performance of multi-stage offensive and defensive adversarial system-of-systems （SoS），which represents the tasks completion degree. During the execution of tasks，the external environment constantly changes，and the efectiveness of the SoS shows time dependent relationship.To addressthis issue，an expanded graphical evaluation and review technique（GERT） is proposed to evaluate the efectivenessof multi-stage offensive and defensive adversarial SoS. Firstly，a GERT network is constructed based on the multi-stage characteristics of SoS task execution，and the transmission characteristics of the network are analyzed. Then，in thecalculation of effectiveness results，a new task time effctiveness parameter considering time factor is designed to reflect the time-dependent characteristics of efectiveness，using thec and z tag method to obtain the relevant parameters for critical tasks execution by the critical component system. Finally，taking the a misile defense SoS'defensive combat mission as an example， the execution effect of the defense combat misson is evaluated，and indicator data such as SoS effectiveness， combat time，missile inventory，and the time of the missile's first hit on the target are obtained，which provides decision-making indicators that cover more information for optimizing the SoS configuration scheme.

Keywords ： offensive and defensive adversarial system-of-systems （SoS）； effectiveness;； graphical evaluation and review technique （GERT）；task time effectiveness

0 引言

复杂系统通过相互依存、交互的分布式架构在网络空间中建立连接，形成一个由诸多系统和要素组成的集成系统或系统组合，以执行单个或多个任务并达成目标[1]。（剩余17311字）