近60a嫩江流域极端气候指数时空分布特征及未来趋势分析

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中图分类号：TV21 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-9235（2025）07-0061-13

Abstract：ThestudyofextremeclimatechangeintheNenjiangRiverBasinisofgreatsignificanceforensuringecologicalsecurityand agriculturalproduction.Basedontheoservationdatasuchasdailytemperatureandprecipitationfrom12meteorologicalstationin theNenjiang RiverBasinbetween196Oand2O20，thispaperselects26extremeclimateindices.Meanwhile，methodslikethelinear fiting，Mann-Kendallutatiost，andsdingttestaedoptedtoaletspatiempralationaractesticftre temperatureandprecipitationinthebasin.Aditioaly，thispaperutilizestheNEX-GDDP-CMIP6datasettopredictfturecliate changetrendsinthbasin.Theresultsshowthatfrom196Oto020，theextremewarmindexsignificantly icreases，whiletheextree coldindexsignfcantlydecreases，withmutationyearsmainlyconcentratedintheyearsafter975.Theextremeprecipitationidex significantlyrises，withmutationyearsprimarilyintheyearsafter2Olo.Intermsofspatialdistribution，theareaswithhighvalue extremecoldindicesaremainlylocatedintheOroqenAutonomousBaner，whiletheareaswithhighvalueextremewarindiesae morescatered.Inadditiontotheintensityindicesotherareaswithhig-valueextremeprecipitationindicsarelsoconcentratedin theOroqenAutonomousBanner.Inthefuture，theNenjiangRiverBasinisexpectedtoshowawarmingtrendintemperatureanda risingtrendinprecipitation，withanicreasedprobabilityofextremehigh-temperatureeventsandextremeprecipitationevents. Keywords： extreme climate index;spatio-temporalcharacteristics; NEX-GDDP-CMIP6;future trends;Nenjiang River Basin

近年来，随着全球气候变化，极端气候变化已成为全球关注的焦点，特别是极端气候事件，不仅对自然环境构成威胁，对人类和社会经济的危害也更大[1-5]。（剩余13532字）