基于CMIP6气候情景的西江流域未来径流预测及其不确定性分析

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Abstract：Duetotecombinedfectsofglobalclimatechangeandstronghumaactivitiesextremefloodshavebecomefrequntand widespread，withsigantcangesiunofsquences.edictigfutueunongsinfloodproneareasderteiflucef climatechangeandhumanactivitiesisofgreatsignificanceforregionalwaterdisasterpreventionandrationalwaterresource utilization.Therefore，bytakingtheXijiangRiverBasin，regionwithfrequentflods，astheresearchbject，thispaperadoptsthe Mann-Kendallmutationtestandunivariatelinearregressonmethods torevealtheon-uniformcharacteristicsofthebasin'sunoff sequences.Basedonthis，theXin'anjiang hdrologicalmodel（XAJ）isbuilt，ndtheparticleswarmoptimization （PSO）algorithmis employedtocalibrateandvalidatethemodelparameters.Furthermore，byutilizingdatafrom15climatemodelsunderCMI6，thebias correctionandspatialdisaggegation（BCSD）downscalingmethodisappliedtodownscalethedatatotheXijiangRiverBasin. AditioalleesulllXJelisbtandidatoschsotofodelaie runoffchangesareadopted torevealthecharacteristicsoffuturewaterresourcevariabilityinthebasin.Theresultsshowthatthe annual runoff of the basin decreases year by year at a rate of 17.26m3/s ，with the abrupt change occurring in 2OO2. The built XAJ modelcanbemoreefectivelyappliedtotheXijiangRiverBasinanditsabilitytocapturepeakflowissuperior.Inteearediu， andlongter，eoffuringteonodsasonwillireasesigniiantlyilethatifodeasosilleceas.eul canprovideanimpantsentificbasisfratermanagementagenciestopln，llcate，andutilizeaterrsourcesreasoablyithe basin，thereby reducing the influence of GCMs and SSPs uncertainty on runof prediction uncertainty.

Keywords： climate change; runof prediction;uncertainty;Xijiang River Basin

21世纪以来，受全球气候变暖和强人类活动共同影响，中国水资源的时空演变规律发生显著变化，水资源管理与规划面临严峻挑战[1-2]。（剩余9274字）