4种气候变化情景下梁山慈竹在中国的 潜在适生区预测

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中图分类号：S771.8 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673-923X（2025）08-0103-10

Abstract：【Objectie】Thisstudyaimstoanalyzethchangingtrendsofitspotentialsuitablehabitatsundercurntandfuturelimate changecenaiosprovdingdacefodestandgtsgrowthbitsadpromotigtsutilatio.etod】Basedo26sttio recordsof D farinosusandl2environmentalvariables，theMaxEntmodelwasemployedtosimulateitspotentialsuitablehabitatsunder curentoditsdtuateecosfourthas（6s4ds5）.Keyal factorsinfluencingitsdistributionandhabitatshiftswereevaluated.【Result】TheROCcurvevalidationandAUCindicatedhigh prediction accuracy AUC=0.922） .The critical factors determining its suitable habitats were precipitation of the driest month （Biol4）， clayontent，ndutmperatureofteldstmonthio6）Currntlyigsitabilityasaeonctratedinangxi GuizhouandGuangdongituzouvingthergestproportioUderfutureclateseariostesuitableabitatarispoeted to expand，articuarlyinoutagdongithoverallrthadsfttowardgerltiues.Conusi】octio efortsshouldprioritizehumidhabitatswithprecisewatermanagementforseedlingsandirigationinaridzones.Cold-tolerant germplasms，greenousecutivation，andmulchingenablegradualexpansionintolow-suitabilityregions.Ecologicalcororsin migrationhotspots （e.gJingzhouandSuining，Hunan）andsoil-climatemodel-coupleddynamicstrategiesarercommendedto optimizeintroductionplans，prioritizingargescaleplantinginiguitabilityareaslikeGuzhoandSichuan.Its“miteddaptation" migration，odoltsaloteallgs coordinatedclimateresilienceandhabitatconnectivitytomitigatefuturerisks.

Keywords：Dendrocalamus farinosus;MaxEnt;climate changescenarios;potentially suitablearea

梁山慈竹Dendrocalamusfarinosus又名大叶慈，隶属于禾本科Gramineae竹亚科Bambusoideae牡竹属Dendrocalamus，为常绿丛生竹种，外观秀丽可供观赏，兼具生态修复与经济开发价值。（剩余14382字）