咸阳市冬小麦病虫害气象风险预报技术研究

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中图分类号：S512 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0488-5368（2025）06-0087-05

Abstract：The major diseases and pests afecting winter wheat include stripe rust，Fusarium head blight，aphids，and red spider mites.This study utilized data on temperature，precipitation，sunshine duration，and relative humidity from 12 meteorological stations in Xianyang，covering the period from 2014 to 2024，as independent variables to analyze and predict the development trends of these diseases and pests.The objective is to develop meteorological risk forecasting techniques for winter wheat pests and diseases.Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between meteorological factorsand the affected areas of the two major diseases and two key pests.Significant meteorological variables identified through the correlation analysis were used to construct multiple linear regresson models，which were subsequently validated.The validation results indicated thatthe predicted affected areas deviated fromthe actual values byO to 1O.7 thousand hectares，with an accuracy rate of 93.2% . The maximum absolute difference between the predicted and observed severity levels was 1（on astandardized scale），with no extreme errors，therebysatisfying the demand of the agricultural sector for accurate meteorological forecasts concerning winter wheat diseases and pests.

Key Words： Winter Wheat ; Diseases and pests；Meteorological factors; Correlation; Risk forecasting

咸阳市位于陕西省关中腹地，地处暖温带，属大陆性季风气候，四季分明，光、热、水资源较丰富。（剩余4267字）