近40年气候变化对宁夏马铃薯生产潜力的影响研究

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中图分类号：S532 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0488-5368（2025）06-0079-08

Abstract：Potato （Solanum tuberosum L.） is a cool - season crop that is sensitive to high temperatures. Global warming poses serious challenges to its cultivation. Therefore，assesing the effect of climate change on the climatic potential productivity（CPP）of potato provides guidance for optimizing industrial layout and enhancing yield and quality.In this study，phenological dataof potatoand daily meteorological data from eight weather stations in Ningxia from 1981 to 2O2O were analyzed using a stepwise correction method.The spatial distribution and temporal trends of potato CPP were examined，along with the effcts of the key climatic factors such as temperature，precipitation，and solar radiation.The results indicated thatfrom 1981 to 2O2O，potato CPP in Ningxia exhibiteda spatial pattern of higher productivity in thesouth and lower inthe north.In contrast，the distribution of photosynthetic potential productivityand light-temperature productivity showed anopposite trend.Over the past 4O years，the overall CPP of potato in Ningxia increased，with a climatic trend rate of 321.4kg/hm2⋅10a Declines insolar radiation generally had a negative effct on potato CPP，except in southern Ningxia where a slight positive efect was observed.Rising average temperatures exerted a predominantly positive effect，with negative effects limited to the counties of Yanchi and Tongxin in Wuzhong City.Increased precipitation generally had a positive efect across major potato -producing areas，again with the exception of Tongxin County. Overall，climate change has had a positive effect on potato CPP across most of Ningxia.Although reduced solar radiation remainsa limiting factor，warming and increased humidity havebeen favorable for potato yield in the region.To further enhance yield stability and resource use efficiency，it is recommended to introduce cold -and drought - tolerant，high-photosynthetic-effciency potato varieties，maintain a planting densityof approximately30，000 plants per hectare，and adjust sowing dates accordingly.

Key words：Climate change；Potato；Potential productivity；Ningxia

IPCC第六次评估报告指出，近50年的增暖趋势在过去2000多年来史无前例。（剩余10418字）