山东省畜牧业碳排放演变特征及驱动因素分析

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doi：10.13304/j.nykjdb.2024.0827

中图分类号：F326.3，X713 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1008-0864（2025）08-0155-13

AnalysisofEvolution CharacteristicsandDrivingFactorsof Carbon Emission from Animal Husbandry in Shandong Province

WANGXiao，XINXiangfei*，YANYan，WANGJimin （Instituteof AgriculturalEconomicsandDevelopment，ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences，Beijing10oo81Chia）

Abstract：The evolution characteristicsanddriving factors of carbon emissions fromanimal husbandry in Shandong province were analyzed by using the life-cycle asessment method and the generalized divisia index method.The results showed hat the total carbon emissions fromanimal husbandryin Shandong province decreased from6360.91×104tin 2011 to 5 576.21 × 104tin2O22，with anaverageannual growth rateof-1.19 % . The proportion of carbon emissions from enteric fermentationandmanure management graduallydecreased，andtheproportionofeedconsumptionsystemin2019 exceededthatof gastrointestinal fermentationand manure managementsystem，andbecomed the most importantsourceof carbon emissions.In termsof livestock species，poultrycarbon emissonsaccountedforthe largest share，and the total amount of poultrycarbon emisions showed growing trend.From theperspective of spatial and temporal series，Linyi， Weifang and Heze had largertotal carbon emisions，while Tai’an，Qingdao and Jining had lower carbon intensity.In terms ofcomprehensivedriving factors，thecarbonintensityoftotal mechanicalpowerconsumptionandcarbonintensityof economicoutput werethe maincontributing factors，andthecontributing efectofthe intensityoftotal mechanical power consumption was relatively low.Above results showed that adjusting the industrial structureand improving the effciency andfectiveness oflivestockand poultryproduction were efectivewaytoimprove theresouceutilization eficiencyof the livestock industryinthefuture，andimproving theeficiencyof livestock machinerywhile introducingadvancedand lowcarbonlivestock machineryandequipment was an important direction for the green developmentof the animal husbandry industry in Shandong province in the future.

Keywords：animal husbandry；carbon emission；life-cycleasessment；generalized divisiaindex method；drivingfactor

畜牧业是我国农业农村发展的支柱产业，改革开放以来，为改善城乡居民膳食结构、保障肉蛋奶等重要农产品供给、推动乡村产业振兴、提供劳动就业岗位以及带动农民收入增长等发挥了关键性作用。（剩余19346字）