强震后城市中小区域建筑群受损概率的快速预测方法

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关键词：城市建筑群；受损概率；场地效应；HVSR；场地易破坏程度

中图分类号：X43;X915.5;TU42 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-0844（2025）06—1380-08

DOI：10.20000/j.1000-0844.20240401002

Abstract： The post-earthquake damage probability of urban building clusters is strongly corelated with local site conditions. Hence，this study employs a semiempirical method to investigate this relationship for the rapid and accurate prediction of damage probability for urban small- and medium-scale building clusters after strong earthquakes.A specialized database was established by compiling field-observed building damage data and corresponding site vulnerability index K -value from destructive earthquakes.With the use of 70% randomly selected data from the database，a probability model for slight，moderate，and severe damage in building clusters after strong earthquakes was developed to predict the multilevel damage probabilities of urban small- and medium-scale building clusters. The remaining （20号 30% data served as a test set to validate the damage probability model，with the results demonstrating high predictive accuracy. Application of the model to 16 building clusters in the Saihan District，Hohhot，further confirmed its feasibility for regional damage probability analysis.

Keywords： urban building clusters; damage probability; site effect; HVSR; site vulnerability

0 引言

目前针对建筑物抗震能力的计算大多基于强震发生的假设，且主要集中在对单体建筑物的分析上，研究重心从结构构件逐渐扩展到了非结构构建。（剩余12188字）