基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市轨道交通系统地震易损性研究

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关键词：城市轨道交通系统；地震灾害；易损性；网络性能；蒙特卡洛模拟中图分类号：TU18 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-0844（2025）06—1292—11DOI：10.20000/j.1000-0844.20231219003

Abstract： The main structure of urban rail transit systems is highly susceptible to damage during earthquakes，which can disrupt system connectivity and operational functionality. To systematically evaluate the structural failure probability，connectivity，and operational performance of urban rail transit systems under varying seismic intensities， this study introduces a seismic vulnerability analysis framework based on Monte Carlo simulation. Ground motion prediction equations specific to China were used to model network ground motion inputs，while unit failure rate， network efficiency，and network service eficiency were selected as key performance indicators. The framework integrates a vulnerability model for individual structures with Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the seismic response of the network. Lognormal probability paper was applied to fit performance loss ratios across multiple earthquake magnitudes，enabling the derivation of parameters for the network vulnerability equation. A case study on the urban rail transit network of a city in North China validated the framework feasibility. The results reveal that uncertainties in seismic input significantly impact vulnerability curves， underscoring the need to account for these variations in analysis. As earthquake magnitude increases， network performance losses intensify. For instance，under an 8-magnitude earthquake，the case network experiences approximately 41% structural failure， 84% connectivity loss，and 91% operational functionality degradation. These findings highlight the progressive nature of performance loss， where structural failures lead to reduced connectivity，further impairing network functionality. This study can provide a reference for evaluating the probabilistic seismic risk of urban rail transit systems.

Keywords： urban rail transit system; seismic hazard; vulnerability; network performance; Monte Carlo simulation

0 引言

历次震害表明，城市轨道交通主体结构（车站、桥梁、隧道等）会在地震中发生破坏，这不仅会造成严重的人员伤亡、财产损失，甚至会导致整个系统的瘫痪，影响当地居民的出行和经济发展。（剩余16016字）