基于源-荷不确定性的上海典型园区用能预测

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中图分类号：TK01 文献标志码：ADOI：10.13338/j.issn.1674-649x.2025.01.008

Energy usage forecasting in a typical Shanghai park based on source-load uncertainty

LI Zhengrong，JIANG Yating

（School of Mechanical and Energy Engineering，Tongji University，Shanghai 2Ol8O4，China）

AbstractTo investigate the uncertainties in building energy consumption and renewable energy supply at the design and planning stages of an industrial park，this study adopts a botom-up approach. Using EnergyPlus and PVsyst，physical models of energy consumption and photovoltaic （PV） power generation were established for a typical industrial park in Shanghai.Deterministic scenario sets were generated for different seasons （e.g. cooling，heating，transition），weather types （e.g. sunny，cloudy and overcast），and energy consumption characteristics （working days and non-working days）.Based on the scenario analysis，Latin Hypercube Sampling and k -means clustering methods were used to generate and reduce uncertainty scenarios.Typical energy consumption curves and their contributions were obtained，and the energy consumption characteristics of the park under different scenarios were analyzed. The results show that energy consumption uncertainty in the transition season is the highest，followed by the cooling and heating seasons，with the maximum range of uncertainty variation reaching 9.34% and 9.76% . PV power generation uncertainty is more pronounced on sunny and cloudy days，especially in the cooling and heating seasons，with the maximum range of uncertainty variation reaching 13.25% and 16.78% . Under dual uncertainties of source and load，PV utilization rate can decrease by up to 10.24% ，while PV curtailment rate can increase by up to 10.23% . These findings highlight the importance of energy storage technologies in scenarios with high uncertainty，particularly during peak load periods in the cooling season and low load periods on non-working days. The application of energy storage systems can significantly improve energy utilization efficiency.

Keywordsenergy usage; renewable energy supply; scenario analysis method; load forecast; uncertainty analysis;Latin Hypercuber Sampling

0引言

我国 90% 以上城市居民工作生活在园区中，80% 以上的GDP和 90% 以上的创新在园区内产生，园区逐渐成为我国工业化、低碳化、城镇化发展的高质量平台[。（剩余14621字）