鲜食玉米籽粒镉累积关键影响因子及其影响途径基于随机森林模型

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中图分类号：S513；X53 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672-2043（2025）05-1199-09 doi：10.11654/jaes.2024-0552

Abstract：In order to explore the key influencing factors and influencing pathways of cadmium（Cd）content in maize grains， In this study， fresh maize planted in Cd polluted area of Quzhou City， Zhejiang Province and the corresponding soil were taken as the research object. The influence factors of soil（pH， available Cd， total Cd）and plant（Cd content in each organ， Cd translocation factors and varieties）were analyzed by Random Forest（RF）model. The results showed that soil pH was negatively correlated with grain Cd content， while other variables were positively correlated with Cd content. The variance explained by the predictive model based on cross-validation（VECV）in RF model explained 75.65% of the variation of Cd content in maize grains. The importance of influencing factors on the Cd content in maize grains was as follows： TFcob-grain >variety>stem Cd>root Cd>BCF>husk Cd（plant factor）; Soil pH>soil available Cd>soil total Cd（soil factor）. Path analysis showed that soil pH and soil total Cd directly affect the content of available Cd in soil， thereby indirectly affecting the absorption of Cd by maize and the migration and transport of Cd in the above-ground part of the plant， and finally affecting the content of Cd in maize grains. Stem Cd， leaf Cd and cob Cd together explained 47% of the Cd content in maize grains， and the prediction ability of the model was 45.57% （Goodness of f it=0.4557 ）. In conclusion， soil pH， translocation ability for Cd and variety are the most important factors affecting maize grain Cd.

Keywords：maize; cadmium; Random Forest; influencing factor

镉（Cd）是土壤中一种具有高生物毒性的重金属污染物，具有强生物迁移性、高毒性、易富集且不可降解等特性[1]。（剩余21588字）