贸易政策不确定性对个体创业的影响

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[中图分类号]F752[文献标识码]A[文章编号]1671-8372（2025）04-0033-10

Abstract：Based on the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data from 20o5 to 2019 and the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index，this study empirically analyzes the effcts and mechanisms of trade policy uncertaintyon individual entrepreneurship.Theresearch shows that trade policyuncertaintyreduces the probabilityofindividual entrepreneurship. The Mechanism test results indicate that when the levelof supplychainresilience is high，theentrepreneurial financial environment is well-eveloped，and the market entrybarriers are low，the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on individualentrepreneurshipwillbe mitigated.Heterogeneityanalysisreveals that tradepolicyuncertainty significantly inhibits subsistenceentrepreneurship，mid-stageentrepreneurship，andmature entrepreneurship，while its impacton opportunity-driven entrepreneurship，early-stage entrepreneurship，and innovative entrepreneurship isnot significant. Accordingly，the study suggests improving the level ofopenness to the outside world，promoting domestic circulation， optimizing the entrepreneurial finance，and adopting differentiated entrepreneurship support strategies to enhance individual entrepreneurship.

Keywords：trade policyuncertainty;individual entrepreneurship;supplychainresilience;entrepreneurialfnancial environment;market entry barriers

一、引言

全球经济正步人一个前所未有的高度不确定时期。（剩余15866字）